The “Monty Hall Problem” an example of counter-intuitive

So wound up down the rabbit hole reading a chatGPT article that said chatGPT got the “dumb monty hall” problem wrong…

“ChatGPT: Automatic expensive BS at scale”

Which is a good article…

So had a quick read about the monty hall problem, where they “The Cleverest woman in the world LOL” say you should always change from your initial selection, and I was like, no clucking way, the odds have just gone from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2, so you have no better probability by switching.

So, after correcting a silly bug in my prog. I have to admit seems cleverest woman in the world was right, it is 33 to 66 or best option according to odds (not luck) to switch to the remaining selection. (what I proved was a predilection to accept the result I was looking for and not rigorously checking my initial program was right LOL)

‘Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the other doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ”Do you want to pick door No. 2?”’ Is it to your advantage to take the switch?’

Vos Savant wrote a column called ‘Ask Marilyn’ in the popular magazine Parade, in which she responded to readers’ questions. According to the Guinness Book of Records, at the time she was the woman with the highest IQ in the world.

Vos Savant responded to Whitaker in her column of 9 September 1990: she said you should switch and that you double your chances of winning if you do.

My python program proves it is 33/66 so counter-intuitively better to switch. (Some problem with it not displaying like it looks like while editing in this wordpress theme, perhaps the upgrades to the free theme deliberately made it worse????)

#!/usr/bin/env python3
# test the monty hall problem
# PWR 2023
# 3 slots, 1 with car, two with goats, selected by random
# choose 1 you think has the car in it
# rule out one of the unselected two with a goat leaving two slots
# my_choice and other_choice then add results to totaliser

import secrets
numtests = 100000
slots = 3
goat = 0
car = 1
other_choice = 0
initial_choice_car = 0
other_choice_car = 0

# use random to select the one with the car, other two get goats

round_vals = [0,0,0]

for thisround in range(numtests) :
    # fill array with goats and car
    car_slot = secrets.randbelow(slots)
    for this_slot in range(slots) :
        round_vals[this_slot] = car if (this_slot == car_slot) else goat
    # make choice
    my_choice = secrets.randbelow(slots)
    # determine remaining slot after eliminating a goat
    # this method always selects last door with goat
    # if it contains a goat, which might be a tell in real world if you
    # had analysed show enough, but does not affect statistics
    # fast exits if one of the remaining slots is a car as that is always
    # the other choice slot
    # for poker face need to not fast exit and random select the opened door
    # if the two remaining options are goats

    for this_slot in range(slots) :
        if this_slot != my_choice :
            # if it's a car than thats the other choice
            if round_vals[this_slot] == car :
                other_choice = this_slot
            else :
                other_choice = this_slot

    initial_choice_car += round_vals[my_choice]
    other_choice_car += round_vals[other_choice]


Looks like EDF Energy possibly made £8 Billion off the British and Passed it on to the French consumer!

Looks like EDF Energy possibly made £8 Billion off the British and Passed it on to the French consumer!

The French have a huge price cap, like the French consumer only paying 19 pence a unit…. less than it allegedly costs EDF to produce.

But that boils down to the “market rate” thing it’s not cost to produce it’s just less than market rate… but realistically who else are the French going to sell electricity to? Power line transmission loss is massive… we are the only ones close enough… tell the we will pay them less and I guess they could dial back their reactors a bit, what is missing is the difference between market rate and cost-to-produce rate.

Plus seems some “creative accountancy” regarding their decrepit fleet of nuke power stations… And also in the whole explanation that their retail arm is not the one making the money because their supply arm are charging their retail arm more money for the energy… but… it’s all the same fucking company… no money travels outside the company, if their energy manufacture arm charges their energy supply arm more, the same fucking company are still making all the fucking money!

(though still do have to factor in potentially 8 ticking time bombs in the form of the decrepit nuke power plants…. but this is all related to the ludicrous net zero shit… they have nothing to replace gas/oil and coal.)

“That cost the group €8.2bn (£7.3bn) in the year, it said, which effectively wiped out the €8.7bn (£7.8bn) it made from “market price rises passed on to customers”.

They may also sell to Spain, but like the French they are only paying about 19 pence a unit for Electricity, so we seem the mugs that are paying them massive amounts per unit and subsidising their whole operation.

Another interesting thing is the business rate in France is cheaper than the consumer rate, here small business is being crippled by the outrageous rates ofgem have allowed.

Basically if the British government have not got electricity generation to satisfy the needs of the British public, then it’s another in the long lib-lab-con catalog of failures or outright lies!

brexit eh! what a massive con sold to the patriotic British people eh! Take control of our borders eh! Ha Ha fucking Ha. ffs they are spending way more defending ukraines borders when the actual ukranian border regions may be in favour of seceding from ukraine.

Macron today was saying now is not the time to dialog with Russia, firstly I thought, well when is the time to start dialog? Then it occurred to me, obviously while the French are so effectively bleeding us the British for energy prices, why would they want the war that is source of their profit to stop?

British Gas / Centrica profits triple to £3.3 Billion pounds

16/2/2023 – Centricas profits triple

The story laughingly talks about demands for a windfall tax on the energy companies, which will never get back to the native British population it was taken from, when what should be being called for is ofgem mounted on spikes outside parliament and a two thirds refund on your energy bills.

Have to wait for the accounts of the other big UK energy suppliers but reckon they will be in the same ballpark. Seems to me what they (our government and their corporat-king partners) have done is Robbery with Menaces! The vaccine rollout and these energy price rises by ofgem. And sending all britians weapons to Ukraine (though the latter probably a master stroke, no military coup possible and cannot defend ourselves against yankee corporat-king un takeover should it happen. seems to me, a secret un army quite possibly being the recipient of lots of these weapons being shipped supposedly to ukraine, I mean the yanks recently announced they can’t account for a missing N TRILLION dollars of military expenditure again! the last time being just before 9/11 when they announced they could not account for $3 TRILLION in military expenditure, then the pentagon accounts office investigating it got allegedly hit by a fucking airliner eh! $3 TRILLION That’s a lot of luxury bunker complexes eh! And secret armies eh!)

The possibility exists actually it was planned as a stealth tax raid on the population… put energy prices up massively, prompting calls for a windfall tax on…. “the energy companies” eh! subtle! To me, from my observations, the sort of subtle you would expect from the’s at the cuntrols!

Such a mindbogglingly dumbed down population! That think they are trendy and clever eh! Because they know the tittle-tattle that such and such is fucking so and so behind whojeemaflips back eh! Or because they are in a thruple eh! Or whatever other crap mousebait the Psy. Co. (psychological manipulation company) establishment has laid before the populace. Idiocracy for sure. And funnily enough the story above it on the dm page is exactly of that ludicrous style, daily mail agony aunt… daily mail chose to highlight a mumsnet story “A woman looking for love has revealed her confusion after realising a man she has been dating hadn’t asked her any questions in three days.” I remember a funny Sean Locke segment where he talked about going on mumsnet LOL

My advice would be to turn off your television and limit your internet use.

I guess as they have a lot of data from people playing stuff like GTA or whatever online on their servers (which means all your moves go into their database, they can see exactly how any individual plays) they have a lot of insight into a portion of people which is also useful to them, and all the information on what web links people follow from the selections presented, probably another big insight into controlling the masses. So seems they are quite confident in their proletariat fleecing operations.

Could be my advice to go off the internet could of itself highlight any individual as potentially problematic as their usage had gone below “norms”… perilous times!

Optimal time to shower in Winter ?

The question occurred to me, I figured it was probably about 1pm, but as I had a shed load of data and wanted to have a play with pandas thought I’d do a quick python prog to find out.

Can of course do a lot of filtering, ordering, grouping and averaging with an SQL statement, but was interesting to discover pandas has an sql interface and a direct interface to matplotlib… Cool. In a few lines of python code and some tweaking get a nice graph.

click graph for more detailed view

I do not claim these temperatures are bang on but as an idea of how temperature fluctuates by hour is about right, i.e. big fluctuation in winter/spring more stable in late-summer/autumn but could be affected by missing data :

a) I think on an individual reading the sensor is at least 0.5c over due to self heating as I set compensation to zero and may be as much as 1c over.

b) I need to probably check if pandera can check for missing segments and readings out of kilter or do some similar checks using SQL and python on my dataset. I know on startup if a missing segment where powered down (battery run out) the IAQ/Gas readings go out of normality, but temperature, humidity, pressure are all stable on startup

c) doing an average temperature per hour per week would be interesting, but not enough years data to be useful. If had full 2 years data then probability missing segments strike in same place would be less, but weather varies eh! All about constant and consistent data!

d) readings also very influenced by being attached to a metal shed and shaded for a large portion of the day, but similar set of parameters to the bathroom.

Basically pandas does time sequence stuff nicely! And can use any assortment of strptime date formats to convert any timestamp format you may have… actually python has a cool auto date parsing routine that checks most of likely types. I have used a few over the years, possibly still a string representation best for keying and SQL LIKE lookups.

External BME680 finally packed up… not bad, 1.5 years, 1.5 winters and no problem…

Well, the whole thing failed to boot tonight so retrieved it, but basically seems to me the air-quality subsection failed, shorted or something, was basically reading in the 12 million range (maxing out) when normally in the 100 thousand range… temp, humidity and barometric pressure all still OK.

so a bit of corrosion on the pi zero’s micro usb ports… aluminium connected to power eh! otherwise looks incredibly clean inside, no signs of water ingress, so was a cool openscad 3d-print design I did, if I say so myself…

anyway back up soonish….